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Financial crisis? What financial crisis?

When is a crisis actually over? When equity prices rise again, as has been the case since March? When we seem to have forgotten that it ever occurred? Or only when the unemployment figures start to sink?

About a year has passed since the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and the collapse of AIG and Citigroup, and the situation on the financial markets could hardly be more different compared to the situation back then. Instead of plunging anew every day, equity prices have been rising almost unceasingly since March. Corporate bonds are no longer being sold off in a panic, as investors now are searching feverishly for any great deals they may have missed. Many commodities, especially gold, silver and crude oil, are flying high instead of sinking low. If it weren’t for the millions of additional unemployed, the gaping holes in public finances and record low interest rates, there would hardly be any superficial signs of the crisis ever having occurred. Many seem to have almost forgotten that the global financial system came right to the very brink of disaster, in what was from a historical perspective just a couple seconds ago.

Nevertheless, under the surface unease still seethes and uncertainty and worries persist. Although the optimism has spread a great deal, the almost linear upward trend in equity prices since March is being watched with concern by many. Both by those who are invested and fear an abrupt end to the rally and by those who missed the boat and are waiting anxiously for a setback to jump back on board.
While it is possible that equities are not all that cheap anymore, exaggerations during times of euphoria have a different feel. Indeed, this wide-spread scepticism is precisely the kind of fertile ground that could nourish more significant gains in share prices. And the key word there is ‘could’. There are no guarantees, of course. 
Country: Poland