Global trade
International supply chains will once again come under considerable pressure in 2026. Once again, it is becoming clear just how vulnerable a system is that relies on just-in-time production spread across the globe and cheap transport routes.
Global trade
The current tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important channels for global energy trade, highlight just how dependent the economy and capital markets are on a handful of critical routes and players.
If tankers have to be diverted for safety reasons, delivery times shoot up and energy prices skyrocket within a matter of days, it is not just industrial companies but entire economies that can be thrown into turmoil.
Companies are responding with a combination of short-term crisis management and long-term restructuring. In the wake of the shocks caused by the pandemic and, now, the geopolitical upheavals, many are increasingly focusing on diversification:
alternative suppliers,
new transport corridors,
additional storage capacity
and digital tools for real-time monitoring of their own supply chains.
What was once regarded as an inefficient ‘fat margin’ is now seen as a necessary resilience premium.
For investors, this is changing the risk profile of entire sectors. Business models based on cheap energy, fragile transport routes or highly concentrated supplier structures suddenly appear less attractive. Companies that actively manage geopolitical risks, diversify their sourcing and ensure transparency across their value chains are in demand. Resilience is becoming the new key metric: those who understand their supply chains, run through various scenarios and can pivot quickly in an emergency gain a competitive edge – and, from an investor’s perspective, may well justify a higher valuation.
The question remains as to whether we have truly learned from past crises – above all from Covid-19. The pandemic has starkly demonstrated how quickly global networks can collapse when ports close, factories grind to a halt and demand shifts abruptly. Much of what was regarded as a ‘wake-up call’ at the time seems to be fading into the background again today, as soon as the pressure eases. Yet every new crisis – be it a pandemic, war or blockade – lays bare where shortcomings persist: a lack of transparency, one-sided dependencies and limited flexibility.
The benefits and challenges of global trade
Global trade has a complex history that has evolved over the past few centuries. As far back as ancient times, traders exchanged goods between different cultures; Roman coins have been found as far south as the tip of India. One of the most famous trade routes, the Silk Road, facilitated the exchange of goods and ideas between Asia and Europe.
Trade agreements
Trade agreements are treaties between states or economic areas designed to facilitate the international exchange of goods and services. They regulate economic relations, remove trade barriers and usually address areas such as customs duties, the harmonisation of standards or the protection of intellectual property.
ESG assessment
The assessment of the ‘global trade’ issue area in relation to the individual ESG sustainability dimensions
‘E’ (Environmental)
The environmental dimension is particularly affected when it comes to global trade. First and foremost, it concerns the nature and location of production – in other words: what environmental impacts arise, for example, from cultivation (such as those caused by machinery, fertilisers or pesticides), and which arise from transport to consumers? The choice of transport mode is often crucial for the environmental assessment, but the environmental footprint of the production process itself must also be taken into account to ensure a fair comparison.
‘S’ (Social)
When production is relocated, value added is, in effect, exported, which can put pressure on certain sections of the labour market. The quality of products and services may be adversely affected by outsourcing to low-cost production centres. In the case of food, for example, food safety and health considerations may be called into question in certain instances.
‘G’ (Governance)
From a governance perspective, the question arises as to the rules governing international trade, the success of trade agreements, and the international organisations that promote and regulate trade.